It's no secret. I like beef. And for fellow beef lovers the year 2008 seemed worrisome at the onset because of the rise in the cost of corn, a main ingredient in cattle feed.
You see, a portion of the corn crop is going into cars, instead of beef - ethanol producers pay a better price - and though it is a small fraction of the national crop, it's enough to affect the price of what's slated for feeding our food.
So all things made with corn are poised to go up in price. At least it seems so on the surface.
Call me optimistic but I think that won't happen, at least not for beef because it travels some distance to get on your plate, and at each juncture, whomever handles it (farmer, distributor, wholesaler) will discount it so that the person on the next level up will buy it. Retailers, in order to move it will spread any cost increases over other items they sell to make up the difference. So my simplified conjecture, and reasoning that if the price of corn remains high, commodity farmers will plant it instead of other crops (driving the price down with over-production) means the price of beef won't be significantly increased this year.
Of course, I'm a farmer - not an economic forecaster, or specialist in interpreting 'China-syndrome' factors (whatever affluent Chinese are buying determines price increases and shortages here).
What is happening is this: cattlemen anticipate leaving beef animals on grass longer before they send them to the feedlots, resulting in fewer cattle grading "choice" or "prime", and that's an object of concern for the restaurant trade, where offering prime or aged beef is what they do - places that have names like Chop House, Cut, and Prime will certainly be affected if they can't buy what they need to sear and serve up.
Here's something to ponder. If Joe Consumer wanted beef to be lean -then, it'd already be in demand as a niche item. Fact is, few choose it, unless they know how to cook it without making it tough. (I've tried to sell it, and it had to be highly discounted to move.) If lean proteins were in vogue, then alternative lean meats (venison, beefalo, rabbit, elk) would be escalating in sales. It isn't happening.
The majority of consumers probably won't even notice a shortage of prime (unless it's a special occasion.) But the "Beef, It's What's For Dinner" people aren't taking any chances - they've launched a national print ad campaign touting the nutritional benefits of lean beef, hedging bets that just in case we are buying beef for texture and taste (and not health), there's an economic advantage for the industry to preemptively spend 15 million dollars of beef check-off money to convince people of the advantages of chewing more and paying less.
For myself, looking at slick photos of lean beef surrounded by gravy and salt isn't going to alter my meat-eating habits. In any event, tasty high quality beef is available to be had if you can find it - try looking close to home.
